This week marked a year since Town's famous 6-0 hammering of Doncaster Rovers in the Championship last season, when Connor Wickham notched an impressive hat-trick. The win moved Ipswich on to 41 points from their first 30 games, igniting hopes of a late push for the play-offs.
Ultimately, it was not to be. From the remaining 16 games, Town only managed to put a further 20 points on the board, finishing in a disappointing 13th place.
So it was interesting for me to read comments from Michael Chopra this week, suggesting that a late push for the play-offs would not be entirely out of the equation for Ipswich. Being the optimist I am, I was inevitably lured in by the notion and have already started dreaming.
But what would it require for us to finish in the top six this campaign? Well, one of the best ways to work it out is to look at what it has taken in the past for a team to finish sixth.
Nottingham Forest occupied the final play-off position last season with a total of 75 points – higher than it has been in a number of previous seasons.
Reaching that points total would be a tough task as it would require Ipswich (currently sitting on 37 points) to take no less than 38 points from the remaining 16 games. That is at a rate of almost 2.4 points per game – significantly better than the title winning form of Queens Park Rangers last season.
In real terms, however, that would basically require Ipswich to win almost thirteen of their remaining games in a fixture list that still includes Cardiff, Southampton, Hull, Burnley and Middlesbrough, as well as many other tough games. Essentially, it would be a fool who bet on Ipswich reaching 75 points.
Maybe then, we should turn to the table this season and see if there is any chance of the bar being lowered somewhat.
It is Reading who currently occupy sixth place in the Championship on 51 points from their 30 games. That is at a rate of exactly 1.7 points per game. In turn, that points to them finishing on approximately 78 points if they were to continue at their current rate of point accumulation. Definitely out of the question for Ipswich, as it would require 14 wins from the remaining 16 to finish above them.
Finally then, we should look at what other recent seasons have required. In 2009-10, Swansea took sixth place with just 70 points – to obtain that, Town would need 11 wins from 16.
In 2008-09, Preston finished on 74 – just over 12 from 16 for Ipswich, then. In 2007-08, Watford, like Swansea two years ago, also achieved 70 points; while in 2006-07, Southampton managed the 75 that Forest got last year.
Therefore, it would seem, Ipswich would, at the absolute minimum, have to win between 10 and 12 of the 16 games that remain in the Championship this season.
Do I honestly believe that is attainable? Lets just say we are now building for next season.
